By Jonny Williams, Farm Stock (Scotland) Limited Managing Director
After several months of relative stability,the prime beef market has come under significant pressure with several factorsweighing negatively on the trade:-
Despite finished cattle prices easing, the store trade remained well supported up until the middle of April by cheaper cereals and large volumes of discounted feed potatoes. The well-signposted 0.9%decline in UK prime beef numbers has been more than offset by heavier carcass weights. In simple terms, plentiful barley and cheap tatties have meant cattle have piled on the pounds.
Hopefully, we will see some stability over the medium term around the 600p/kg mark. Longer term, the outlook for beef remains positive, with multi-year herd reductions continuing across both the US and Europe. Suckler and dairy farmers with their own finishing enterprises will not be as exposed to the sharp drops in price. Where I have concerns is for the store finishers in the short term who buy seasonally and may now be also exposed to interest rate rises. With store prices easing by up to 10% in some cases, now might be a opportune moment to buy cattle if you have ever considered starting or expanding a beef enterprise?
The sheep sector tells a different story. Since mid-February, lamb prices have reached record levels, with some of our shrewdest members doubling their money on store lambs purchased through the co-operative last autumn. When marketing store lambs this summer it is really important to understand what your customer wants and I fully expect major finishers to be even stricter on purchasing lambs which have been double vaccinated against the major clostridial diseases. The incessant wet weather either side of Christmas contributed to significantly higher mortality for many large store finishers in the East of Scotland with lambs immunity challenged whilst on catch crops.
At UK level, the sheep flock has declined by a further 2% this year, and the fall in the English flock is particularly stark. For the sheep sector in particular, the value of sterling against the euro can prove as influential as domestic supply itself. A weaker pound continues to underpin export competitiveness into key continental markets.
Put simply, not enough farmers want to lambewes or calve cows. Farmer who are looking to expand are in many casesstruggling to get competent staff. The tightening supply base helps explain therecord prices seen through Ramadan and Easter 2026.
As May begins the outlook for new season lamb remains extremely positive, with every indication that prices could be every bit as strong as those seen in 2025.However, unlike beef, which is heavily influenced by the domestic market, lamb remains highly exposed to European and global factors. Whilst Bastille day is generally one to be avoided, such is the importance of the French market, (see graph above) the major religious festivals are always worth noting on the calendar and historically have supported increased demand for both prime sheep and cattle.
· Ramadan: 7th - 8th February2027
· Easter: 28th March 2027
· Eid al Adha: 17th May 2027
When preparing lamb marketing plans for 2026/27, producers should keep a close eye on the value of sterling, export demand and the latest global news story. I still believe that for all the huge uncertainty surrounding global politics and economic/consumer confidence, the major elephant in the room is food security: The UK, Europe, infact most of the Western world is steadily producing fewer and fewer cattle and sheep, whilst global demand for high quality protein continues to rise. This shrinking of production may prove the defining story of the decade.
